Negotiations are still ongoing between the Speaker of Parliament and the Council of Ministers in an attempt to find a formula that keeps the Commander-in-Chief of the Army, General Joseph Aoun, in his post and thus avoids destabilizing the armed forces in the current circumstances facing Lebanon.
It was against this backdrop that caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati held talks Tuesday with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. They covered another issue, namely the situation in South Lebanon and the risk of things getting out of hand, especially as the Hamas branch in Lebanon has just announced the formation of a small group whose aim is to mobilize Palestinian youth “to liberate Jerusalem and the Al-Aqsa Mosque.”
The extension of the mandate of General Aoun, who is set to retire on January 10, is almost a foregone conclusion, even if Gebran Bassil, leader of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), continues to oppose it. The local and international consensus in support of such a decision makes it easier to postpone the retirement of the Commander of the Armed Forces.
However, discussions are still concentrated on ways to keep General Aoun in his post. Berri had promised to convene a parliamentary meeting during which a bill to this effect would be approved by the Lebanese Forces and others, notably the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) and the National Moderation Bloc, should the government fail to agree on extending General Aoun's term in office.
According to several sources, the fact that Berri has still not called for a parliamentary meeting to prepare the agenda for a plenary session means that the chances of a settlement at the government level persist.
One of the median solutions mooted in this context is for the Council of Ministers to extend General Aoun's term of office and at the same time appoint a new Chief of Staff, in this case General Hassan Audi, the highest-ranking Druze officer. Audi's choice was approved by all political forces.
An extension of General Aoun's term of office, decided by the majority in the Council of Ministers minus the FPM, would be the subject of an invalidation appeal to the Council of State, lodged, of course, by the FPM.
But according to parliamentary sources, this appeal remains a mere detail since stability at the army command level will have been preserved in the meantime. By the time the Council of State rules on the appeal, a president may have been elected. If not, the Chief of Staff will take over the reins on the day the new deadline for General Joseph Aoun to remain in office expires.
What is certain is that the option of appointing a successor to the Commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, in the absence of a president, is out of the question. Even Hezbollah and the Amal movement do not want to set a precedent in this respect. As for the choice advocated by Gebran Bassil for the highest-ranking officer to lead the armed forces, pending a breakthrough in the presidential elections, all parties still rejected it. And for good reason: the officer in question is close to the head of the FPM.
Avoiding a War
Regarding Security Council Resolution 1701, Mikati informed the Speaker of Parliament of the results of his talks in Dubai on the sidelines of the 28th Conference of the Parties on Climate Change (COP28), where he conferred, among others, with French President Emmanuel Macron on the explosive situation in South Lebanon.
The caretaker Prime Minister, who met with members of the consular corps in Lebanon Tuesday, explained that the aim of his contacts with Washington, the UN and the European Union is to "prevent Lebanon from being entangled in an all-out war.”
He stressed that "negotiations will be conducted over the coming months, through the United Nations, to ensure greater stability on the southern border.” According to Mikati, these talks will focus on two elements: "pursuing the implementation of Resolution 1701 and resolving the problem of disputed border points.”
It was against this backdrop that caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati held talks Tuesday with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. They covered another issue, namely the situation in South Lebanon and the risk of things getting out of hand, especially as the Hamas branch in Lebanon has just announced the formation of a small group whose aim is to mobilize Palestinian youth “to liberate Jerusalem and the Al-Aqsa Mosque.”
The extension of the mandate of General Aoun, who is set to retire on January 10, is almost a foregone conclusion, even if Gebran Bassil, leader of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), continues to oppose it. The local and international consensus in support of such a decision makes it easier to postpone the retirement of the Commander of the Armed Forces.
However, discussions are still concentrated on ways to keep General Aoun in his post. Berri had promised to convene a parliamentary meeting during which a bill to this effect would be approved by the Lebanese Forces and others, notably the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) and the National Moderation Bloc, should the government fail to agree on extending General Aoun's term in office.
According to several sources, the fact that Berri has still not called for a parliamentary meeting to prepare the agenda for a plenary session means that the chances of a settlement at the government level persist.
One of the median solutions mooted in this context is for the Council of Ministers to extend General Aoun's term of office and at the same time appoint a new Chief of Staff, in this case General Hassan Audi, the highest-ranking Druze officer. Audi's choice was approved by all political forces.
An extension of General Aoun's term of office, decided by the majority in the Council of Ministers minus the FPM, would be the subject of an invalidation appeal to the Council of State, lodged, of course, by the FPM.
But according to parliamentary sources, this appeal remains a mere detail since stability at the army command level will have been preserved in the meantime. By the time the Council of State rules on the appeal, a president may have been elected. If not, the Chief of Staff will take over the reins on the day the new deadline for General Joseph Aoun to remain in office expires.
What is certain is that the option of appointing a successor to the Commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, in the absence of a president, is out of the question. Even Hezbollah and the Amal movement do not want to set a precedent in this respect. As for the choice advocated by Gebran Bassil for the highest-ranking officer to lead the armed forces, pending a breakthrough in the presidential elections, all parties still rejected it. And for good reason: the officer in question is close to the head of the FPM.
Avoiding a War
Regarding Security Council Resolution 1701, Mikati informed the Speaker of Parliament of the results of his talks in Dubai on the sidelines of the 28th Conference of the Parties on Climate Change (COP28), where he conferred, among others, with French President Emmanuel Macron on the explosive situation in South Lebanon.
The caretaker Prime Minister, who met with members of the consular corps in Lebanon Tuesday, explained that the aim of his contacts with Washington, the UN and the European Union is to "prevent Lebanon from being entangled in an all-out war.”
He stressed that "negotiations will be conducted over the coming months, through the United Nations, to ensure greater stability on the southern border.” According to Mikati, these talks will focus on two elements: "pursuing the implementation of Resolution 1701 and resolving the problem of disputed border points.”
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