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The dangerous turn of events in Lebanon in recent days, fueled by the open conflict with Israel, signals dire consequences that are likely to further worsen the existing situation.
The high-stakes gamble that has unfolded for over ten months has now reached the point of no return, particularly after Israel has fully destroyed Gaza, making it uninhabitable for years to come. Israel can now shift its focus to the Lebanese front, especially as the issue of the return of the displaced from northern settlements and villages has become a pressing issue, highlighting the government’s inability to manage the situation. This marks perhaps the first time a crisis has endured for such an extended period.
It is difficult to ignore the clear advantages Israel is gaining from the US being immersed in the presidential elections, which are less than two months away. This situation has enabled Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to consistently sidestep the political proposals put forward by US President Joe Biden aimed at establishing a ceasefire in Gaza.
Equally, Israel seeks to capitalize on the US focus on the elections to expand its military and security operations against Lebanon and Hezbollah, evading Washington’s pressure that opposes an escalation of the war but allows for intensified actions within certain limits.
However, the Israeli strikes, as has often been the case, target Lebanese civilians and residential areas. Israel has a long-standing history of violating international law since its establishment on Palestinian territory in 1948. Israel occupied Lebanon from 1978 until 2000, withdrawing under pressure without signing a peace agreement with Lebanon—an issue that continues to be met with rejection in the country.
However, in light of the increasing losses on all fronts, is it reasonable to consider the slogan put forth by the Supreme Leader of the Iranian Revolution, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, suggesting that a tactical retreat before the enemy may be warranted in specific situations? And will Israel accept this, given its belief that it has made significant military achievements through its sustained strikes against Hezbollah?
While some argue that Hezbollah’s decision to engage with Israel the day after the Al-Aqsa Flood operation is what stirred the southern front, which had remained largely quiet since the end of the July 2006 war, it is equally true that Israel—due to its structure, nature and Zionist ideology—cannot fathom the idea of stability and prosperity in Lebanon. This is evidenced by the thousands of aerial, naval and ground violations of Lebanese sovereignty that have taken place since 1948.
The best solution may lie in reverting to the ceasefire agreement signed in 1949, which could be facilitated by international and Arab pressure aimed at restoring stability in southern Lebanon. This approach could also help shelter the region from the ongoing conflicts and unprecedented changes that are reshaping the balance of power under new terms.
In this context, national solidarity is crucial and must be strengthened to align with the highest national interest, setting the stage for a new reality post-war, with stability as its core focus. Lebanon has endured significant hardships for decades, and it is now time for the country to embrace its chance for peace. When this opportunity arises, Lebanon can flourish, leveraging the talents of its citizens, whose skills are making waves around the world and achieving remarkable success stories.
