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In 2006, the famous “if I had known” excuse might have hinted at a sense of remorse after the devastation of South Lebanon, of Beirut suburbs, and the loss of thousands of lives. Gulf countries invested billions to rebuild the country at the time. Nineteen years later, the same players are on stage, making the same strategic blunders. Since October 8, 2023, over 500 Lebanese have died and 3,500 have been injured. For what? For whom? One might wonder. This time, the message is clearer: the “Axis of Resistance” is sustaining a “support front” for Gaza. Yet, it’s hard to understand how dragging Lebanon into war and bloodshed benefits the people of Gaza. Worse still, after the total devastation of Palestinian territory and more than 40,000 deaths, the mastermind of the October 7 attack, Mr. Sinwar, is being offered safe passage, potentially allowing him to settle somewhere more comfortable. The Palestinian victims will no doubt appreciate this thoughtful gesture.
In Lebanon, no one finds comfort in these events. Despite our complete and longstanding disagreements with Hezbollah, we cannot forget that the victims are Lebanese. This madness must end.
Hezbollah’s leader is reluctant to engage in an all-out war, recognizing it as both a military and political suicide. He needs an exit strategy to preserve his influence, but Benjamin Netanyahu stubbornly refuses to provide one. How, then, can he save face? One possibility is for Mr. Sinwar to send a message thanking Hezbollah and requesting a cessation of support, allowing Hamas to claim a hollow victory—mission accomplished.
In this context, the Lebanese government could instruct the army to deploy assertively at the border. While this may seem simplistic, one might argue that decision-makers are actually in Tehran, where, speech after speech, Iranian leaders strut with pride, parading confidently.
Their argument is astonishing: “We’re thwarting Israeli plans by exercising… self-control!” What’s surreal is that some people actually buy into this narrative. The mullahs are not naive; they have no intention of sharing the fate of the Palestinians and Lebanese. Their goal is to negotiate with the Americans and secure political and economic arrangements for their country. Retaliation is not their style. Even after the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, they cautiously warned the Americans before striking a base with a few missiles.
Last April followed a similar script. Hundreds of missiles and drones were launched toward Israel, yet the announcement was made so far in advance that all were intercepted. Phew! The retaliation caused no casualties, but for those conditioned by decades of lies, it was perceived as a magnificent show of strength. What’s astonishing is that none of their so-called (or coerced) allies dare to tell the Iranians, “This is a farce.” Anyone paying attention has long recognized that Tehran won’t lift a finger for the Lebanese or Palestinians.
So, here’s an idea: what if Lebanon adopted the “self-control” strategy that has served Tehran so well? It could prevent much bloodshed and suffering. It’s worth considering.
