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The consequences of the ongoing military operations in Gaza are impacting President Joe Biden’s electoral calculations. Diplomatic sources assert that despite Biden’s tough rhetoric towards Israel, Washington seeks to capitalize on the Al-Aqsa Flood operation by using it in his electoral campaign. He is exerting pressure to achieve a humanitarian ceasefire to be followed by a halt to military operations. In this context, a Western diplomat asserts that a negotiation phase has begun with the aim of reaching a compromise and ensuring stability. This is thought to be Biden’s goal before the year’s end, one that he intends to highlight in his campaign. A military expert believes that the October 7 war will be the last war in the region and will lead to a comprehensive and equitable peace. The Al-Aqsa Flood operation is an irrevocable action, meaning that it started somewhere and would end up somewhere else. As such, the objective of the American fleet’s presence in the region is to solidify peace and facilitate a compromise, rather than to protect Israel.
Meanwhile, Israel is opposed to any ceasefire until it has achieved a military victory that would restore the image of its intelligence services and its army. In Lebanon, a former security official conveyed a clear message to the American and European authorities stating that Hezbollah would only get involved in the conflict if Israel wages a land offensive on Gaza with the backing of American forces. This position comes as a response to Iran’s threat of engaging the factions of the Tehran-backed axis and Hezbollah (Moumanaa) in the battle against Israel.
Diplomatic sources reveal that US Ambassador Dorothy Shea, who canceled her vacation, carried a message to Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, whereby “any aggression against Israel from the South will fall on Lebanon and Hezbollah, and the Israeli response will be devastating.”
The Israeli Defense Minister had already warned Lebanon against any transgression, as he stressed that “if a front is opened on the southern border, we will return Lebanon to the Stone Age.”
In this vein, a former Minister states, “Visitors to Lebanon and accredited diplomats have urged the authorities not to involve the country in the conflict and to prevent Hezbollah from exploiting the southern border, especially considering that the area falls under international protection as per Resolution 1701.” Hence, Lebanon is required to adhere to the provisions of the resolution and respect it. In this regard, Mikati was quick to disavow any responsibility, stating that the decision regarding war and peace is not in the government’s hand, alluding to the fact that Hezbollah and the obstructionist axis are the main decision makers.
A Western diplomat argues that since Hezbollah is an armed organization with trained fighters operating as a formal military force, its participation in the battle could compel the American military to support Israel.
A politician from the anti-Hezbollah camp contends that the main concern stems from a possible involvement of Hezbollah in the battle. According to a military expert, the Iran-backed party may consider relocating the war within Israel as its fighters have gained valuable experience from street battles in Syria since 2011 while helping prevent the collapse of the Assad regime, which was fighting against revolutionaries and terrorists.
He adds that since Hezbollah’s actions in southern Lebanon violate Resolution 1701, some member countries of UNIFIL (United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon) have threatened to withdraw their troops, a matter that would undermine Lebanon’s position at the Security Council.
As such, Hezbollah aims to exacerbate the situation in order to seize one-third of Israel’s military capabilities in the South. Meanwhile, the party is mobilizing its media channels to rally their support base in preparation for a potential involvement in combat, should it be compelled to join the battle if Israel enters Gaza with US military backing.
On a reassuring note, a Lebanese official quoted an Arab source as saying that, “Iran has reportedly promised Saudi Arabia that Hezbollah will not engage in the conflict, in a bid to prevent Lebanon from facing catastrophic repercussions at a time it is reeling under a persisting political crisis in the absence of a head of state.”
A politician who met with Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hossein Amir Abdollahian, during his recent visit to Lebanon, quoted him saying that “Hamas is putting up a strong resistance, inflicting a painful blow to Israel” and that Hezbollah will not participate in the battle as “it constitutes a powerful card” that Tehran will not sacrifice that easily.
