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Hezbollah is exploiting its alleged dialogue with the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) to prolong the presidential vacuum while waiting for the right moment to impose its candidate, the leader of the Marada party, Sleiman Frangieh.
From his end, the leader of the Free Patriotic Movement, Gebran Bassil, is trying to benefit from this dialogue on two fronts. On the one hand, he is attempting to increase his bets in the political and public administration realms in exchange for his support of Frangieh’s candidacy. On the other hand, he is trying to find a way to convince Hezbollah that his candidacy is an alternative to that of Frangieh.
While Hezbollah publicly states that this dialogue is progressing well, the pro-Iranian faction and the FPM affirm within their private circles that it will not yield any results, according to sources close to both parties. In fact, Hezbollah will not give up on Frangieh’s candidacy. Furthermore, the Shiite movement will not let Gebran Bassil achieve a political victory regarding expanded decentralization or any other matter. It also seems quite evident that the Speaker of Parliament, Nabih Berri, is unwilling to compromise in favor of Gebran Bassil, especially about launching the process of expanded decentralization.
Furthermore, it has become problematic for the aounist party to get out of the embarrassing situation it has gotten itself into, especially since many party members refuse to return under Hezbollah’s influence through the presidential elections. They believe that any compromise in this regard will benefit the pro-Iranian party, which will claim to have granted the FPM something in return. As for the FPM, it will only recognize the fools’ deal a little too late, as was the case with former President Michel Aoun who Hezbollah had deserted, thus letting him deal with the Speaker by himself throughout his six-year term.
Ever since the announcement of its revival, the dialogue between the Free Patriotic Movement and Hezbollah has been conducted in the shadow of serious security incidents involving the pro-Iranian faction in one way or another. This spans from the clashes of Ain el-Helweh to the incident of the suspected Daesh member who has taken up residence in the southern suburbs, in addition to Elias Hasrouni’s assassination in Ain Ebel and the shooting incident in Kahaleh. All of these events indicate that a failure to comply with Hezbollah’s wishes will lead the country into more serious security tensions. As a result, the FPM will be faced with two options: either to compromise with Hezbollah on the latter’s terms, or Lebanon will be heading towards a worse political and security collapse. In both cases, the Free Patriotic Movement will not be able to claim victory in having provided the Christians with any substantial benefits.
Under these conditions, such a dialogue might not lead to any results. But the following question remains: Who will pull out first, the FPM or Hezbollah?
