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On Sunday, the Arab League readmitted Syria, which was suspended in 2011 after a violent crackdown on popular uprisings that led to a deadly war. This decision comes amid a reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, facilitated by China, as President Bashar al-Assad seeks investors for the country’s massive reconstruction project that will cost tens of billions of dollars. This will thus necessitate an easing of sanctions that weigh heavily on Syria.
An Easing of Sanctions on the Horizon?
It is important to note that, following the earthquake that struck Turkey and Syria on February 6, the European Union (EU) and the United States temporarily eased sanctions against Bashar al-Assad’s regime to allow the delivery of humanitarian aid.
However, in order to ease these sanctions, “certain laws must be repealed. In the absence of repeal, laws are still effective”, explained a legal expert to This is Beirut. “Syria’s return to the Arab League does not prevent the continued application of sanctions”, he added.
Nevertheless, it is still too early to determine if the sanctions will be permanently eased and the Caesar Act annulled, since the lifting of sanctions is conditional upon the cessation of aerial bombings on civilian targets, access to humanitarian aid in areas not controlled by the regime, the release of all political prisoners, the condemnation of war criminals, and the return of refugees.
Possible Implications for Lebanon
Several economists interviewed by This is Beirut agree that reintegrating Syria to the Arab League should facilitate trade for the country’s reconstruction, an eagerly anticipated opportunity for Lebanese businesses. Although Syria’s reconstruction process remains stalled, Lebanese companies are banking on this lucrative market to recover from the damages they suffered in the past years.
However, this development will not expedite the delivery of gas from Egypt and Jordan via Syria to generate electricity in Lebanon, which is contingent on a World Bank loan. This loan, which has been frozen for several months, awaits the implementation of electricity sector reforms and the establishment of a regulatory authority. The financial institution has been clear on this matter: these reforms are non-negotiable; even though Lebanese officials claim that the suspension of the electricity project is due to the Caesar Act, to mask their failure to implement the requested reforms.
In any case, it is still too early to foresee the implications, positive effects, and economic changes for Lebanon.
What is the Caesar Act?
The Caesar Act, or Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, was named after the code name of a former Syrian military police photographer, Caesar, who fled Syria in 2013, taking with him 55,000 photographs of tortured bodies in Syrian prisons. It came into effect on June 17, 2020, and is expected to remain in force until December 2024.
Implemented by the United States, this Act aims to contribute to a lasting political solution to the Syrian conflict in line with United Nations Security Council Resolution 2254, by depriving Syria of financial resources. It also seeks to deter European and Gulf governments from re-engaging politically with Damascus or investing in the country. Furthermore, the Caesar Act opposes the normalization of relations with the Syrian regime, which is strongly demanded by Hezbollah.
It is relevant to stress on the fact that this law is part of a broader framework aimed at preventing armed groups, particularly Hezbollah, from establishing a permanent presence in Syria and countering Iranian influence in the country.
The Caesar Act grants the United States the right to impose heavy sanctions, such as seizing and freezing assets in the United States or imposing travel restrictions, on anyone providing financial, material, or technological support to the Syrian regime. This includes the supply of goods, services, or information enabling the maintenance or expansion of natural gas, oil, or petroleum product production, construction services, or services related to the aviation sector.
